Author

Scott Parsons

Published

29 October 2025

Estimated Read time

5Mins

Scott Parsons, Senior Manager, Transport and Logistics Sector at Menzies, discusses beating the reactivity cycle

The return of reciprocal US trade tariffs in August after months of delays shows how quickly global trade can shift. For companies reliant on trading with the world’s largest importer, this presents a complex reality. While newfound levy stabilities offer a more predictable planning environment, they continue to raise costs and add complexity to already strained global supply chains.

But the real danger isn’t just the tariffs themselves, but how the industry responds. Absorbing costs to stay competitive, pushing them down the chain, or scrambling to renegotiate contracts are all short-term fixes. The deeper challenge lies in the ripple effects that tariffs create: disrupted sourcing patterns, longer lead times, inventory strain and price volatility.

Years of supply chain chocks like Brexit, COVID-19, the Panama Canal drought, and ongoing geopolitical tensions, have kept UK logistics in a constant cycle of firefighting.

This period of permacrisis prevents firms from innovating and increases financial risk. To thrive, the industry must break away from short-term thinking and build future-ready, tech-enabled, and geographically adaptable supply chains. The current window of tariff stability provides an opportunity to act – and to finally break free from the reactive cycle.

Make time for strategy

The first step starts with making time for strategy. For many transport and logistics firms, the biggest obstacle to long-term planning isn’t a lack of awareness, it’s a lack of time. Our research shows that 44% of UK business leaders struggle to focus on strategic priorities, becoming absorbed in day-to-day operational demands. Without deliberate action, immediate concerns inevitably push strategy aside.

The challenge then is not recognising the value of strategy but creating the conditions for it to thrive. This means freeing up leadership capacity, delegating routine tasks, and using external support where possible to ease pressure points.

Independent challenge is also crucial to planning success. Too often, firms rely solely on internal perspectives, creating blind spots that may result in overlooked opportunities and underestimated threats. Engaging external advisers, whether for financial modelling, business restructuring, or investment planning, can provide a vital second opinion and spark the shift that turns strategy into sustained advantage.

Find growth in tariff gaps

Alongside these challenges lies opportunity. The return of tariffs brings cost and complexity, but also a chance for agile firms to gain a competitive edge. Shifts in trade policy, supply chain restructuring, and international rate disparities can present new routes to growth.

Higher levies on Chinese imports, for example, are expected to lead to reduced transatlantic shipping volumes of Chinese-origin goods, indirectly lowering freight demand for UK-based firms tied to US-Chinese trade. In turn, this may accelerate supply chain diversification and boost direct trade with the UK, or alternative Asian markets.

Notably, UK tariffs are more favourable than those of many other major trading partners. As of August 1, the UK harbours a general 10% levy, lower than the EU’s 15% and China’s 30% rate. For steel, the UK rate sits at 25%, much lower than the 50% flat rate imposed on most US trading partners. For automobiles, the UK benefits from a 10% rate on up to 100,000 vehicles exported annually to the US, compared to the EU’s 15% rate without volume caps.

These tariff imbalances offer UK firms a potential market edge. Firms that realign their sourcing strategies can strengthen their position, while freight forwarders and customs brokers may see a rise in demand for advisory services like tariff mitigation and origin planning to help navigate increasingly complex tariff structures.

Flexible warehousing, bonded storage, and multi-modal solutions are also likely to grow as businesses look to reroute goods, with providers like Clipper Logistics already expanding their offering here to meet demand.

Think beyond immediate costs

Strategic discipline matters just as much when deciding where and when to invest in technology. Tools like Automation, AI, and digital fleet management tools can cut costs and boost efficiency, but they require an upfront investment. Competitors that take the leap here gain a competitive advantage, leaving late adopters struggling to keep up.

Too often, investment decisions hinge on immediate affordability, instead of forecasting how costs and revenues will evolve. This short-term view can expose firms to sudden price increases or revenue shortfalls. Instead, firms should regularly stress test their strategies against different scenarios and risks. This helps leaders prepare for scenarios from fuel price swings to changing customer demands or new regulatory changes.

Developing a robust financial model is critical too. Tracking cashflow projections, operational costs and the impact of external market factors can further protect against risk. Building in additional tools like customs and duty optimisation software can help identify cost-saving import or export structures and even leverage free trade zones through route optimisation.

Taken together, these strategies can help position firms to seize opportunities, whether that is through expanding their fleet, adopting new technology, or exploring new markets, rather than shielding against risk.

Lead through change

Tariffs are no longer a temporary disruption – they’re becoming a defining feature of global trade. For UK transport and logistics firms, long-term success depends on moving beyond reactive crisis management and embedding resilience into every part of the supply chain. This starts with making time for deliberate strategic planning, supported by financial modelling, stress testing, and scenario analysis.

Firms that diversify sourcing, invest in automation, and leverage the UK’s relative tariff advantages will be better positioned to adapt and compete. Just as importantly, making space for long-term thinking through leadership focus, structured planning, and external insight will allow companies to turn policy shifts like tariffs into sources of stability and opportunity. The businesses that act now to future-proof their operations won’t just survive the next trade shock they’ll lead through it.

  • Sourcing & Procurement

Author

Louis Carval

Published

11 September 2025

Estimated Read time

5Mins

Moving the supply chain can often be a knee-jerk reaction, but it’s important to think strategically about whether relocating is the best idea

1. Why do you think moving the supply chain tends to be a knee-jerk reaction when tariffs rise or trade tensions flare?

It’s a reaction that comes from a place of urgency. Tariffs go up, or trade tensions escalate, and there’s a natural impulse to act quickly – especially when there’s pressure from leadership or shareholders. On the surface, moving a supply chain seems like a strong, decisive move. But in reality, it’s rarely that simple.

More often than not, relocating is a reaction to symptoms rather than strategy. Companies that take a step back and model the full impact – including the hidden costs – usually find the situation is more nuanced. As I’ve seen firsthand, staying put can often be the smarter call when you factor in the broader operational picture.

2. What’s the best way to assess total landed cost when considering a relocation?

You really need to go beyond tariffs and labor rates. A solid total landed cost analysis should include freight costs, customs duties, inventory holding, quality risks, and the cost of time – how long it’ll take to requalify a new supplier or ramp up a new site.

You also want to include softer but very real risks: supplier reliability, logistics infrastructure, responsiveness, and even talent availability. In my work, we use a scenario-based approach that models different outcomes – best case, most likely, worst case – because it’s rarely a linear comparison. You’re not just swapping one cost center for another; you’re rebuilding an ecosystem.

3. What’s the potential cost of relocating too quickly? Is there anything companies tend to overlook?

Yes – and quite a few things, actually. A big one is requalification, especially in regulated sectors. That process can take months and delay your go-to-market timeline significantly. Another is supplier know-how. Longtime partners often bring embedded knowledge – whether that’s tooling nuances, production techniques, or troubleshooting expertise – that’s hard to replicate elsewhere.

Companies also tend to overlook the operational strain. Transitioning a supply chain can drain resources internally – procurement, quality, engineering – and if you’re already stretched, that can be a real problem. Rushing into a move without a proper risk buffer can end up being far more expensive than the tariff you were trying to avoid in the first place.

4. How should companies weigh short-term political or economic incentives against long-term resilience?

It’s a balance. Short-term gains – like avoiding a specific tariff – can be compelling. But the question we often pose to clients is: Will this decision still hold up two or three years from now? Because trade policies change, political winds shift, and if your new setup is fragile, you’re simply moving from one kind of exposure to another.

Resilience is about building supply chains that can absorb shocks. That might mean sticking with a higher-cost geography because of consistency, or diversifying – not relocating – to mitigate risk. If you can model both short-term and long-term impact, and stay aligned to your strategic goals, that’s where smart decisions emerge.

5. What should companies look at when evaluating whether a country’s infrastructure or labor pool can support their supply chain needs?

There are a few core questions to ask: Can the region support the technical complexity of your product? Is the infrastructure – ports, roads, utilities – reliable? Is the labor market deep enough, and are the right skills available? And what’s the regulatory environment like – predictable, or prone to sudden shifts?

We always advise talking to companies already operating in the region. That real-world feedback – on logistics bottlenecks, compliance challenges, or workforce availability – can often highlight issues that aren’t immediately visible from data alone.

6. In your experience, what are the signs it’s time to seriously consider relocating sourcing or manufacturing?

When the risks become structural – not just a one-off disruption or a temporary cost spike. If your supplier can’t meet compliance or ESG standards, if you’re consistently seeing quality or delivery issues, or if the geopolitical environment starts affecting your ability to operate with confidence – that’s when a relocation conversation becomes necessary.

It’s also important to remember that “relocating” doesn’t always mean a full exit. Sometimes it means adding a secondary source, or shifting one tier of the supply chain, while keeping core capabilities in place.

7. How long should companies expect a country-to-country shift to take, realistically?

If we’re talking about a full shift – from decision to full production ramp-up – it’s usually 12 to 36 months. That depends on the industry, of course. A low-complexity product in a lightly regulated sector can move faster. But high-spec manufacturing? With quality controls, tooling transfer, compliance certification? That takes time – and trying to compress that timeline often leads to serious issues down the line.

8. What technologies or tools are helping companies make better sourcing location decisions now than in the past?

We’re seeing a lot of progress here. Companies are using AI and predictive analytics to model risk exposure and simulate cost scenarios. Digital twins are gaining traction – they let you map your supply chain virtually and test what would happen under different disruptions. Supplier risk platforms are also far more sophisticated, incorporating ESG data, political risk scores, and even weather patterns.

Five years ago, this kind of real-time scenario planning wasn’t widely available. Now it’s increasingly essential.

9. Given current conditions—tariffs, geopolitical risk, ESG pressure—how much more complex do you expect supply chains to become by 2030?

Significantly more complex. We’re already seeing how global trade isn’t just about economics anymore – it’s about national security, sustainability, and data sovereignty. And that’s driving more regulation, more reporting requirements, and more pressure to be agile. Add in climate volatility and changing consumer expectations, and you’re looking at a supply chain environment that’s constantly in motion.

The companies that thrive will be the ones that build optionality into their supply chains – and invest in visibility, partnerships, and technology to stay ahead of the curve.

10. Anything else to add?

Yes – just that sometimes, the smartest move is to stay where you are and optimise. It may not feel as bold as a relocation, but doubling down on what’s working – while building in resilience and flexibility – can be just as strategic. It’s not about reacting to headlines. It’s about making decisions that hold up in the long run.

  • Sourcing & Procurement

Author

Nell Walker

Published

19 August 2025

Estimated Read time

3Mins

Industry collaboration for freight decarbonisation pilot proves sustainability and profitability can go hand-in-hand as empty miles drop.

An innovative freight decarbonisation initiative in South West England has achieved a significant milestone, with 65 loads successfully matched, generating over £68,000 in revenue for local hauliers and preventing 7,915 kg of CO2 emissions through reduced empty running, according to new data from TEG.

The collaborative project, led by Peninsula Transport and  Western Gateway STBs with TEG’s Haulage Exchange platform, has demonstrated measurable environmental and economic benefits since its expansion. The initiative now includes 11 participating haulage companies across the region, with loads posted by companies for subcontracting reaching 1,906.

Key achievements from the updated pilot programme include:

Environmental impact: 7,915 kg of CO2 emissions prevented through 9,195 miles of optimised return journeys

Economic benefit: Total revenue of over £68,000 generated for participating local hauliers

Operational efficiency: 65 loads successfully allocated to vehicles that would otherwise have travelled empty

Regional coverage: Load matching across multiple regions, with the highest activity from Greater London (10 loads), South East (15 loads), and South West (23 loads)

The data reveals strong engagement from participating companies, with businesses joining throughout 2024 and demonstrating sustained activity. Bristol-based operators feature prominently amongst the most active participants, highlighting the project’s success in building a regional network of collaborative hauliers.

The most active freight lanes include routes from the East Midlands to Exeter (129 loads), West Midlands to Exeter (128 loads), and North East to Truro (115 loads), demonstrating how the platform is successfully connecting return journey opportunities across major UK freight corridors.

Lyall Cresswell, founder & CEO of TEG, said: “These results demonstrate the real-world impact that smart logistics technology can have on both environmental and business outcomes. By giving local hauliers access to our platform, we’re not just reducing empty miles – we’re creating tangible economic value while supporting the region’s sustainability goals. The fact that we’ve generated over £68,000 for local businesses whilst preventing nearly 8 tonnes of CO2 emissions shows how collaboration and technology can drive meaningful change.”

Cllr John Stephens, Peninsula Transport, said: “The pilot project with TEG is an example of the South West Freight Strategy  in action. By cutting carbon, boosting the regional economy, and making better use of our existing freight capacity we’re pleased to be supporting cleaner, more efficient and better connected transport across the region.”

Cllr Chris Willmore, Western Gateway STB, said: “We are pleased to support the important initiative as part of our work to decarbonise freight with STB funding and guidance. Freight is so important to our economy, but is often overlooked. This pilot reduces the number of miles HGVs travel empty, which without the initiative often contribute to climate change and cost businesses money. By working collaboratively with our neighbouring STB, Peninsula Transport, we can maximise our impact on the freight industry and see our South West Freight Strategy come to life”.

The project addresses the critical industry challenge of empty running, which accounts for approximately 30% of all haulage vehicle miles according to Department for Transport data. By providing participating hauliers with access to load-matching technology through Haulage Exchange, the initiative enables businesses to find profitable return loads, improving vehicle utilisation whilst reducing environmental impact.

Vehicle types participating in the programme range from 7.5-tonne trucks to 13.6-metre articulated lorries, with 7.5-tonne vehicles showing particularly strong engagement across multiple regions. 

  • Sourcing & Procurement

Author

Koray Kose

Published

4 July 2025

Estimated Read time

9Mins

Koray Köse, Founder and Chief Analyst for Kose Advisory and Senior Fellow at GlobSEC’s GeoTech Research Center, discusses how to navigate a complex, chaotic world amid a disruptive and tumultuous geopolitical landscape

35 years ago, the end of the Cold War in 1989 unleashed a wave of globalisation that fuelled unprecedented economic growth through trade, innovation, and economic imbalances. The US led this era, orchestrating a global order where Western economies pivoted to services and innovation, outsourcing manufacturing to Asia and the Global South. 

Today, that order is unravelling. As we transition from the fifth Kondratiev Cycle’s digital revolution to the sixth cycle—powered by AI, quantum computing, space, and biotech—we face a profound recalibration of global power. At Kose Advisory, we call this the “Multipolar Resilience Recalibration Framework,” a strategic lens for navigating a world where new power blocs—China, Russia, BRICS, the Turkic belt, and a newly assertive European Union—challenge US dominance in trade, technology, and ideology.  

This is not a mere transition; it’s a seismic reset. Governments struggle to regulate AI’s transformative potential, corporations grapple with fragmented supply chains, and nations slide into proxy and direct conflicts. Supranational institutions like the WTO and UN are losing relevance, undermined by bureaucracy and shifting priorities. In this multipolar chaos, data-driven insights—drawn from proprietary supply chain analytics and geopolitical foresight—reveal opportunities for those bold enough to act. 

As we navigate this fractured landscape, one truth emerges: in chaos, we must create.

A changing world order: Power blocs and technological divergence

The emergence of assertive leaders—Donald Trump, Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan—reflects a deeper struggle: no major power, especially one with a divergent ideology, willingly cedes control over global trade or technology. China’s rise is stark. It controls 69% of global rare earth production and refining (US: 1%, Europe: 15%, USGS 2024) and leads in robotics, with 470 robots per 10,000 workers compared to the US’s 295 and Europe’s 219 (Germany: 429, IFR 2024). South Korea, with 1,012 robots per 10,000 employees, sets the global benchmark. 

Meanwhile, China’s AI advancements—evident in Huawei’s Ascend chips and Baidu’s Ernie models—threaten US technological primacy, forcing a strategic recalibration.  The US-China trade war exemplifies this shift. By April 21, 2025, US tariffs on Chinese imports hit 145%, with China retaliating at 125%. A fragile 90-day truce, effective May 14, 2025, reduced US tariffs to 30% and Chinese tariffs to 10%, with average rates at 51.1% (US on China) and 32.6% (China on US, PIIE 2025). Yet, legal challenges, including a May 28, 2025, US Court of International Trade ruling against tariff authority, signal ongoing volatility. China’s response—curtailing rare earth exports and imposing visa restrictions on US students—underscores the stakes. 

As Frédéric Bastiat warned, “When goods stop crossing borders, soldiers will.” 

Economic warfare, though less visible, is warfare.  

The same principle applies at the corporate level: navigating both macro and micro shifts requires sharp insight and unbiased, sophisticated analytics utilising AI and advanced scenario planning and supply chain risk management technology (think of leading solutions like Exiger, apexanalytix, and few more). Kose Advisory’s Multipolar Resilience Recalibration Framework advises leaders to anticipate these shifts. 

In a deeply interconnected world, even minor miscalculations can escalate into major disruptions—making strategic, informed decision-making not merely advantageous, but essential for resilience and relevance. 

I believe the current US administration sees this moment as a last exit ramp. Miss that, and the US might lose its ability to shape its future. Ever since the World Wars, the US has dominated global trade rules, in part because European economies haven’t been strong enough to play that role. But now, China’s not just catching up—they’re launching AI breakthroughs, chip advancements and trigger market disruptions that challenge US dominance.

Consequently, these tariffs are more than short-term wins. They’re intended to reset the entire global framework—how we trade, how we build supply chains and how we think about technology, labor and social fabrics.

A blunt approach: Strategic adaptation in a tariff-driven world

If Biden’s Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act (UFLPA) was surgical by targeting China’s textiles, aluminum, and solar panel sectors with principled precision, Trump’s tariff strategy is a shock and awe therapy: it’s blunt, radical and it assumes collateral damage.

Supply chain leaders, in particular, must prepare for significant upheaval. First, that means moving past the shock. Too many companies are still waiting to “see where the chips fall.” That’s dangerous. Approaches like friendshoring must move quickly: Everyone wants to go to the “safe” zones, but if you wait too long, you’re at the back of the line. Mexico and Canada look like relative winners in this situation for anyone trading with the US. Trump knows Mexico is critical for manufacturing, and Mexico isn’t trying to dominate AI or control strategic assets like the Panama Canal.

Companies need to recalibrate quickly, even if it appears impossible. If your entire model is based on sourcing from China and selling in the US, you shouldn’t wait for tariffs to become permanent disruptors before adjusting. Yes, you’ll take short-term losses—but if you wait, you might not be able to find the capacity elsewhere, or you might not be able to afford the transition when capital becomes more expensive. Assume transformation pain and losses while you still can.

Right now, there’s still financing available, and interest rates—while high(er) than in the previous decade—are manageable. But that window may close quickly. Market manipulations can spike US bond yields overnight—done so by China which, in 2024, held an average of $772.5 billion in Treasury bonds, and is the second-largest foreign US debt holder, just behind Japan. If the Fed sees inflation and low unemployment, they won’t lower rates—no matter what Trump wants. That makes financing tougher.

Supply chain leaders must not panic, but they do need to act decisively. Assertive, educated and risk managing leaders will be positioned best. Identify the core driver of your business—whether it’s people, processes or technology—and rebuild around that in a region that offers stability for the next five or so years. Assume temporary losses, but protect yourself from catastrophic ones. Once this recalibration settles, we’ll enter a normalisation period. We will eventually enter the summer of the Kondratiev Cycle — a period of economic maturity and peak growth, where the core technologies of the cycle reach widespread adoption, driving productivity and profitability. AI and quantum computing are expected to drive growth through the 2030s, based on current technological trends.

But eventually, autumn will follow—a season of readjustment, where growth slows, financial cracks appear, and confidence begins to wane, possibly prompting renewed cooperation with former rivals to extend stability. By that point, you want to be in a strong position.

A new business triangle: Geopolitics, economics, technology

The traditional “people, process, technology” triangle no longer suffices. Success in a multipolar world demands a second triangle—geopolitics, economics, technology—with technology as the linchpin driving the sixth Kondratiev Cycle (AI, quantum computing, 2030s growth). Kose Advisory’s Multipolar Resilience Recalibration Framework integrates these triangles, enabling clients to balance operational excellence with strategic foresight. 

Value chains succeed when they lead in both triangles—balancing operational excellence with strategic foresight—and keep their eyes on the day after tomorrow.

It’s no longer enough to optimise for efficiency alone. You need to understand which geopolitical blocs you’re operating in. There’s the US-anchored bloc, the emancipating North Atlantic/European bloc including the UK, the Eurasian axis led by Russia, the China-led bloc, the Turkic belt, and the BRICS nations, just to name a few of the most powerful and are diverging.

If you aim to operate across multiple blocs, your supply chain must be architected to handle that complexity and not all blocs are compatible. Some are fundamentally at odds.

Companies need to identify those blocs and build supply chains that align accordingly. And it’s no longer purely about geography—it’s also about technological and ideological compatibility. There’s a growing phenomenon known as the ‘balkanisation of technology.’ Think of it like electrical adapters in different countries… even though coding standards might be similar globally, the rules around how and where you run your tech are diverging. For instance, China strongly discourages state-run companies from running on US cloud infrastructure. They have to use a Chinese cloud provider, like Alibaba. So if you want to do business in China, you’re not just dealing with different regulations—you’re potentially rebuilding your entire tech stack. Another recent example, such as US restrictions on AI chip exports to China (reported in May 2025) or China’s retaliatory visa restrictions for US students, illustrate ongoing decoupling.

Economically, different blocs are entering divergent growth and recession cycles. If you’re operating across multiple regions, your supply chain must be elastic, adaptive, and agile enough to respond to each environment’s unique dynamics. In some cases, this may require decoupling your business operations entirely. A global tech firm, for instance, may find it necessary to develop parallel manufacturing, compliance, and data infrastructures—one for Western markets and another for China—just to maintain market access. In an increasingly fractured landscape, some countries may even say: “If you’re operating in one bloc, you’re not welcome in ours.” Tech transfer restrictions and IP risks are no longer hypothetical—they’re strategic realities. As a result, companies are being forced to choose sides and rearchitect their business models accordingly. Risk management must become your core competency. 

The end of an era: Seizing opportunity in chaos

Globalisation, as we knew it, is over. The mantra of “people, process, technology” has given way to raw, lean effectiveness: what you produce, where you produce it, and how you secure it, with efficiency as a critical but secondary factor.

Kose Advisory’s Multipolar Resilience Recalibration Framework equips leaders to thrive in this chaos by prioritizing agility and foresight.  Capital is critical. If you have access to it now, use it to make the necessary structural changes. In a recession, forecasting revenue becomes increasingly difficult, and the risk of failure escalates significantly – so will financing your business and investments into the day after tomorrow. 

In the end, you’ve got two choices: You may die trying, or certainly die not trying. As the Turkish saying goes, “Cesurlar bir kez ölür, korkaklar her gün ölür”—the brave die once, but cowards die every day. 

The future favours those bold enough to shape it.

By Koray Kose, Founder and Chief Analyst for Kose Advisory and Senior Fellow at GlobSEC’s GeoTech Research Center.

  • Sourcing & Procurement

Author

Dave Howorth

Published

1 July 2025

Estimated Read time

4Mins

Dave Howorth, Executive Director at global supply chain and logistics consultancy, SCALA, discusses the ways in which food scarcity can be adjusted to.

Empty supermarket shelves are becoming increasingly common in the UK; they act as an unsettling reminder of just how fragile our food supply has become. From climate-driven crop failures abroad to shifting political alliances and trade tariffs, the systems we rely on to stock our fridges are under increasing pressure. Once optimised for speed and cost-efficiency, today’s global food supply chains are straining under the weight of unpredictable and often overlapping crises.

The UK is heavily reliant on food imports, which renders it particularly vulnerable. Disruptions abroad can lead to ripple effects on domestic prices, availability, and consumer confidence. It’s imperative for retailers, food manufacturers, and logistics providers to reassess sourcing, transportation, and forecasting strategies to ensure food security for the long-term.

Climate and trade disruptions

Recent research underscores the vulnerability of specific crops. For example, a report by Christian Aid warns that climate change poses a severe threat to bananas, the world’s most consumed fruit and a dietary staple for over 400 million people. Alarmingly, by 2080, nearly two-thirds of banana-growing areas in Latin America and the Caribbean may become unsuitable. This is due to rising temperatures, extreme weather, and climate-induced pests. And this is not the first crop which is vanishing from UK shelves; recent reports highlight that oranges, grapes, and even tinned sardines have all been in short supply, demonstrating the very real threat of food scarcity.

Simultaneously, Trump’s tariffs could exacerbate the UK’s challenges when it comes to accessing affordable imports. Whilst the recent US-UK trade agreement has introduced certain concessions, significant challenges persist. Crucially, tariffs can lead to higher prices for imported goods, affecting both producers and their consumers in turn. Combined, these factors contribute to a volatile food system which could struggle to deliver consistent, affordable supply.

Building resilience: strategic imperatives

The good news is that a strategic, long-term approach to sourcing can help cultivate food security. The following approaches can make all the difference when it comes to building this resilience.

1. Data-driven forecasting

Advanced analytics and scenario planning are critical tools in navigating changing circumstances. AI-powered forecasting models can assess historical sales trends, climate patterns, political risk indicators, and market signals, enabling supply chain leaders to anticipate potential shortages and make informed sourcing and stocking decisions. However, accurate forecasting depends on quality data, necessitating transparency and collaboration across the entire supply chain to ensure everyone is working from the same point of ‘truth’.

2. Diversified sourcing

Relying on a single region or supplier for essential goods is a recipe for future disruption. Developing multi-sourcing strategies that include a mix of global, regional, and local providers can enhance resilience – ensuring that if one supplier can’t provide, a contingency is already in place to meet demand. While this approach introduces a level of complexity, it enables agility in responding to disruptions – whether by shifting to alternate trade partners or tapping into contingency inventories.

3. Collaborative resilience

The pandemic only underlined the necessity of supply chain collaboration and agility. Joint planning between manufacturers, retailers, and logistics providers can enable smarter demand sensing, shared transport solutions, and strategic stockholding that protect availability and the flow of product during turbulent times. Initiatives like shared visibility platforms and collaborative planning forums facilitate a shift from reactive to proactive resilience-building.

4. Nearshoring considerations

Interest in nearshoring or reshoring food production is growing as businesses seek to reduce reliance on vulnerable global trade routes. While challenges such as higher labour and land costs exist, nearshoring can offer greater control, shorter lead times, and reduced exposure to geopolitical risk. However, its feasibility depends on product type, resource availability, and long-term infrastructure investment. As such, nearshoring needs to considered as one component of a broader resilience strategy that is unique to each business.

Strengthening the foundations of food supply

To navigate the road ahead, businesses should shift from an efficiency-first mindset to one that equally prioritises endurance and adaptability. This entails investing in forecasting tools, diversifying sourcing strategies, embracing collaboration, and considering structural changes like nearshoring. Food scarcity is not inevitable – but avoiding it requires rethinking the supply chain.

  • Sourcing & Procurement