35 years ago, the end of the Cold War in 1989 unleashed a wave of globalisation that fuelled unprecedented economic growth through trade, innovation, and economic imbalances. The US led this era, orchestrating a global order where Western economies pivoted to services and innovation, outsourcing manufacturing to Asia and the Global South.
Today, that order is unravelling. As we transition from the fifth Kondratiev Cycle’s digital revolution to the sixth cycle—powered by AI, quantum computing, space, and biotech—we face a profound recalibration of global power. At Kose Advisory, we call this the “Multipolar Resilience Recalibration Framework,” a strategic lens for navigating a world where new power blocs—China, Russia, BRICS, the Turkic belt, and a newly assertive European Union—challenge US dominance in trade, technology, and ideology.
This is not a mere transition; it’s a seismic reset. Governments struggle to regulate AI’s transformative potential, corporations grapple with fragmented supply chains, and nations slide into proxy and direct conflicts. Supranational institutions like the WTO and UN are losing relevance, undermined by bureaucracy and shifting priorities. In this multipolar chaos, data-driven insights—drawn from proprietary supply chain analytics and geopolitical foresight—reveal opportunities for those bold enough to act.
As we navigate this fractured landscape, one truth emerges: in chaos, we must create.
A changing world order: Power blocs and technological divergence
The emergence of assertive leaders—Donald Trump, Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan—reflects a deeper struggle: no major power, especially one with a divergent ideology, willingly cedes control over global trade or technology. China’s rise is stark. It controls 69% of global rare earth production and refining (US: 1%, Europe: 15%, USGS 2024) and leads in robotics, with 470 robots per 10,000 workers compared to the US’s 295 and Europe’s 219 (Germany: 429, IFR 2024). South Korea, with 1,012 robots per 10,000 employees, sets the global benchmark.
Meanwhile, China’s AI advancements—evident in Huawei’s Ascend chips and Baidu’s Ernie models—threaten US technological primacy, forcing a strategic recalibration. The US-China trade war exemplifies this shift. By April 21, 2025, US tariffs on Chinese imports hit 145%, with China retaliating at 125%. A fragile 90-day truce, effective May 14, 2025, reduced US tariffs to 30% and Chinese tariffs to 10%, with average rates at 51.1% (US on China) and 32.6% (China on US, PIIE 2025). Yet, legal challenges, including a May 28, 2025, US Court of International Trade ruling against tariff authority, signal ongoing volatility. China’s response—curtailing rare earth exports and imposing visa restrictions on US students—underscores the stakes.
As Frédéric Bastiat warned, “When goods stop crossing borders, soldiers will.”
Economic warfare, though less visible, is warfare.
The same principle applies at the corporate level: navigating both macro and micro shifts requires sharp insight and unbiased, sophisticated analytics utilising AI and advanced scenario planning and supply chain risk management technology (think of leading solutions like Exiger, apexanalytix, and few more). Kose Advisory’s Multipolar Resilience Recalibration Framework advises leaders to anticipate these shifts.
In a deeply interconnected world, even minor miscalculations can escalate into major disruptions—making strategic, informed decision-making not merely advantageous, but essential for resilience and relevance.
I believe the current US administration sees this moment as a last exit ramp. Miss that, and the US might lose its ability to shape its future. Ever since the World Wars, the US has dominated global trade rules, in part because European economies haven’t been strong enough to play that role. But now, China’s not just catching up—they’re launching AI breakthroughs, chip advancements and trigger market disruptions that challenge US dominance.
Consequently, these tariffs are more than short-term wins. They’re intended to reset the entire global framework—how we trade, how we build supply chains and how we think about technology, labor and social fabrics.
A blunt approach: Strategic adaptation in a tariff-driven world
If Biden’s Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act (UFLPA) was surgical by targeting China’s textiles, aluminum, and solar panel sectors with principled precision, Trump’s tariff strategy is a shock and awe therapy: it’s blunt, radical and it assumes collateral damage.
Supply chain leaders, in particular, must prepare for significant upheaval. First, that means moving past the shock. Too many companies are still waiting to “see where the chips fall.” That’s dangerous. Approaches like friendshoring must move quickly: Everyone wants to go to the “safe” zones, but if you wait too long, you’re at the back of the line. Mexico and Canada look like relative winners in this situation for anyone trading with the US. Trump knows Mexico is critical for manufacturing, and Mexico isn’t trying to dominate AI or control strategic assets like the Panama Canal.
Companies need to recalibrate quickly, even if it appears impossible. If your entire model is based on sourcing from China and selling in the US, you shouldn’t wait for tariffs to become permanent disruptors before adjusting. Yes, you’ll take short-term losses—but if you wait, you might not be able to find the capacity elsewhere, or you might not be able to afford the transition when capital becomes more expensive. Assume transformation pain and losses while you still can.
Right now, there’s still financing available, and interest rates—while high(er) than in the previous decade—are manageable. But that window may close quickly. Market manipulations can spike US bond yields overnight—done so by China which, in 2024, held an average of $772.5 billion in Treasury bonds, and is the second-largest foreign US debt holder, just behind Japan. If the Fed sees inflation and low unemployment, they won’t lower rates—no matter what Trump wants. That makes financing tougher.
Supply chain leaders must not panic, but they do need to act decisively. Assertive, educated and risk managing leaders will be positioned best. Identify the core driver of your business—whether it’s people, processes or technology—and rebuild around that in a region that offers stability for the next five or so years. Assume temporary losses, but protect yourself from catastrophic ones. Once this recalibration settles, we’ll enter a normalisation period. We will eventually enter the summer of the Kondratiev Cycle — a period of economic maturity and peak growth, where the core technologies of the cycle reach widespread adoption, driving productivity and profitability. AI and quantum computing are expected to drive growth through the 2030s, based on current technological trends.
But eventually, autumn will follow—a season of readjustment, where growth slows, financial cracks appear, and confidence begins to wane, possibly prompting renewed cooperation with former rivals to extend stability. By that point, you want to be in a strong position.
A new business triangle: Geopolitics, economics, technology
The traditional “people, process, technology” triangle no longer suffices. Success in a multipolar world demands a second triangle—geopolitics, economics, technology—with technology as the linchpin driving the sixth Kondratiev Cycle (AI, quantum computing, 2030s growth). Kose Advisory’s Multipolar Resilience Recalibration Framework integrates these triangles, enabling clients to balance operational excellence with strategic foresight.
Value chains succeed when they lead in both triangles—balancing operational excellence with strategic foresight—and keep their eyes on the day after tomorrow.
It’s no longer enough to optimise for efficiency alone. You need to understand which geopolitical blocs you’re operating in. There’s the US-anchored bloc, the emancipating North Atlantic/European bloc including the UK, the Eurasian axis led by Russia, the China-led bloc, the Turkic belt, and the BRICS nations, just to name a few of the most powerful and are diverging.
If you aim to operate across multiple blocs, your supply chain must be architected to handle that complexity and not all blocs are compatible. Some are fundamentally at odds.
Companies need to identify those blocs and build supply chains that align accordingly. And it’s no longer purely about geography—it’s also about technological and ideological compatibility. There’s a growing phenomenon known as the ‘balkanisation of technology.’ Think of it like electrical adapters in different countries… even though coding standards might be similar globally, the rules around how and where you run your tech are diverging. For instance, China strongly discourages state-run companies from running on US cloud infrastructure. They have to use a Chinese cloud provider, like Alibaba. So if you want to do business in China, you’re not just dealing with different regulations—you’re potentially rebuilding your entire tech stack. Another recent example, such as US restrictions on AI chip exports to China (reported in May 2025) or China’s retaliatory visa restrictions for US students, illustrate ongoing decoupling.
Economically, different blocs are entering divergent growth and recession cycles. If you’re operating across multiple regions, your supply chain must be elastic, adaptive, and agile enough to respond to each environment’s unique dynamics. In some cases, this may require decoupling your business operations entirely. A global tech firm, for instance, may find it necessary to develop parallel manufacturing, compliance, and data infrastructures—one for Western markets and another for China—just to maintain market access. In an increasingly fractured landscape, some countries may even say: “If you’re operating in one bloc, you’re not welcome in ours.” Tech transfer restrictions and IP risks are no longer hypothetical—they’re strategic realities. As a result, companies are being forced to choose sides and rearchitect their business models accordingly. Risk management must become your core competency.
The end of an era: Seizing opportunity in chaos
Globalisation, as we knew it, is over. The mantra of “people, process, technology” has given way to raw, lean effectiveness: what you produce, where you produce it, and how you secure it, with efficiency as a critical but secondary factor.
Kose Advisory’s Multipolar Resilience Recalibration Framework equips leaders to thrive in this chaos by prioritizing agility and foresight. Capital is critical. If you have access to it now, use it to make the necessary structural changes. In a recession, forecasting revenue becomes increasingly difficult, and the risk of failure escalates significantly – so will financing your business and investments into the day after tomorrow.
In the end, you’ve got two choices: You may die trying, or certainly die not trying. As the Turkish saying goes, “Cesurlar bir kez ölür, korkaklar her gün ölür”—the brave die once, but cowards die every day.
The future favours those bold enough to shape it.
By Koray Kose, Founder and Chief Analyst for Kose Advisory and Senior Fellow at GlobSEC’s GeoTech Research Center.
- Sourcing & Procurement