Empty supermarket shelves are becoming increasingly common in the UK; they act as an unsettling reminder of just how fragile our food supply has become. From climate-driven crop failures abroad to shifting political alliances and trade tariffs, the systems we rely on to stock our fridges are under increasing pressure. Once optimised for speed and cost-efficiency, today’s global food supply chains are straining under the weight of unpredictable and often overlapping crises.
The UK is heavily reliant on food imports, which renders it particularly vulnerable. Disruptions abroad can lead to ripple effects on domestic prices, availability, and consumer confidence. It’s imperative for retailers, food manufacturers, and logistics providers to reassess sourcing, transportation, and forecasting strategies to ensure food security for the long-term.
Climate and trade disruptions
Recent research underscores the vulnerability of specific crops. For example, a report by Christian Aid warns that climate change poses a severe threat to bananas, the world’s most consumed fruit and a dietary staple for over 400 million people. Alarmingly, by 2080, nearly two-thirds of banana-growing areas in Latin America and the Caribbean may become unsuitable. This is due to rising temperatures, extreme weather, and climate-induced pests. And this is not the first crop which is vanishing from UK shelves; recent reports highlight that oranges, grapes, and even tinned sardines have all been in short supply, demonstrating the very real threat of food scarcity.
Simultaneously, Trump’s tariffs could exacerbate the UK’s challenges when it comes to accessing affordable imports. Whilst the recent US-UK trade agreement has introduced certain concessions, significant challenges persist. Crucially, tariffs can lead to higher prices for imported goods, affecting both producers and their consumers in turn. Combined, these factors contribute to a volatile food system which could struggle to deliver consistent, affordable supply.
Building resilience: strategic imperatives
The good news is that a strategic, long-term approach to sourcing can help cultivate food security. The following approaches can make all the difference when it comes to building this resilience.
1. Data-driven forecasting
Advanced analytics and scenario planning are critical tools in navigating changing circumstances. AI-powered forecasting models can assess historical sales trends, climate patterns, political risk indicators, and market signals, enabling supply chain leaders to anticipate potential shortages and make informed sourcing and stocking decisions. However, accurate forecasting depends on quality data, necessitating transparency and collaboration across the entire supply chain to ensure everyone is working from the same point of ‘truth’.
2. Diversified sourcing
Relying on a single region or supplier for essential goods is a recipe for future disruption. Developing multi-sourcing strategies that include a mix of global, regional, and local providers can enhance resilience – ensuring that if one supplier can’t provide, a contingency is already in place to meet demand. While this approach introduces a level of complexity, it enables agility in responding to disruptions – whether by shifting to alternate trade partners or tapping into contingency inventories.
3. Collaborative resilience
The pandemic only underlined the necessity of supply chain collaboration and agility. Joint planning between manufacturers, retailers, and logistics providers can enable smarter demand sensing, shared transport solutions, and strategic stockholding that protect availability and the flow of product during turbulent times. Initiatives like shared visibility platforms and collaborative planning forums facilitate a shift from reactive to proactive resilience-building.
4. Nearshoring considerations
Interest in nearshoring or reshoring food production is growing as businesses seek to reduce reliance on vulnerable global trade routes. While challenges such as higher labour and land costs exist, nearshoring can offer greater control, shorter lead times, and reduced exposure to geopolitical risk. However, its feasibility depends on product type, resource availability, and long-term infrastructure investment. As such, nearshoring needs to considered as one component of a broader resilience strategy that is unique to each business.
Strengthening the foundations of food supply
To navigate the road ahead, businesses should shift from an efficiency-first mindset to one that equally prioritises endurance and adaptability. This entails investing in forecasting tools, diversifying sourcing strategies, embracing collaboration, and considering structural changes like nearshoring. Food scarcity is not inevitable – but avoiding it requires rethinking the supply chain.
- Sourcing & Procurement